Kaspi.kz's second quarter resists a single verdict. Revenue rose 15% year over year to KZT1.1 trillion, or $2.3 billion, while adjusted EBITDA increased 5% to KZT397 billion and net income was stable at KZT259 billion. That is a clear margin gap, but it is not produced by one weak business. It is the sum of three different economic engines and a fourth, newer commitment in Türkiye.
The company's SEC-filed results show e-commerce strengthening engagement and monetization at the same time. Payments are processing more value without collecting the same fee rate. Fintech is growing its loan book and revenue while high deposit costs absorb much of the incremental profit. A consolidated multiple alone can miss which of those mechanisms is improving and which is merely getting larger.
Commerce converts frequency into a higher take rate
Constant-currency e-commerce gross merchandise value rose 28% to KZT1.3 trillion and purchases increased 33%. Annualized purchases per consumer climbed to 15.8 from 11.6 a year earlier. That frequency matters because the platform gets more opportunities to sell delivery and advertising services around each transaction, not only to earn from the merchandise itself.
The monetization evidence is unusually direct. The third-party e-commerce take rate increased 160 basis points to 16.1%, supported by advertising and delivery. Value-added-services revenue grew 49% at constant currency, faster than the 35% rise in e-commerce revenue to KZT394 billion. Across the broader Marketplace platform, constant-currency GMV grew 15%, reported revenue 11% and adjusted EBITDA 9%. E-commerce is therefore the cleanest part of the quarter: higher activity is being converted into a larger share of value, even though the broader marketplace margin progression is less dramatic.
This result also needs a scope note. Kaspi's definition says 2026 e-commerce GMV includes Hepsiburada, and its financial information archive shows the earlier platform base. Constant-currency comparisons reduce exchange-rate noise, but integration and mix still affect the shape of growth. The evidence supports stronger commerce economics; it does not isolate every contribution from Kazakhstan and Türkiye.
Payments volume grows faster than the fee pool
Payments total payment value rose 13% to KZT12.7 trillion, while revenue increased only 5% to KZT169 billion. The take rate fell to 1.00% from 1.07%, which the company attributes to changing product mix and describes as consistent with its long-run trend. Adjusted EBITDA declined 1% to KZT98 billion, also reflecting higher technology costs for Kaspi Alaqan, its pay-by-palm initiative.
A payments network can become more useful while its revenue yield declines. Lower-fee transactions may deepen customer and merchant engagement and feed activity into marketplace or lending products. That ecosystem benefit is plausible, but it is an inference rather than a disclosed segment transfer. For the payments line itself, volume growth is currently a weak proxy for incremental profit. Evidence of improvement would be revenue growth moving closer to TPV growth without sacrificing transaction activity, or new technology producing measurable adoption and monetization after its build cost.
Fintech duration extends while funding stays expensive
Fintech's average net loan portfolio rose 18% to KZT7.3 trillion and its average duration lengthened to 9.0 months from 7.7 months. Portfolio yield was stable at 6%. Revenue increased 23% to KZT455 billion, but adjusted EBITDA rose only 6% to KZT171 billion because the average cost of funding increased 150 basis points to 14.5%. The mismatch is the core of the consolidated margin debate: longer-duration lending can support more revenue, yet deposits reprice the cost base before loan economics fully emerge.
Credit indicators deserve equal weight. Cost of risk edged up to 0.7% from 0.6%, while the non-performing-loan ratio was 7.0% for the first half, versus 6.1% at the end of 2025. Management links lower coverage partly to a larger share of lower-risk car and merchant loans, less buy-now-pay-later exposure and collection improvements. That explanation may prove correct, but classification and collections do not remove the need to track vintages as duration increases.
There is a credible route to relief, not a guarantee. In August Kaspi cut the rate on its three-month deposit product by 100 basis points; the product represents around one-third of deposits. Separately, the National Bank of Kazakhstan lowered its base rate by 25 basis points to 16.75% in July while warning that inflation pressures still required moderately tight conditions. A lower policy and deposit-rate path could help future funding costs, but timing, deposit mix and competition determine the actual pass-through.
Türkiye turns the margin gap into an execution test
Kaspi completed its acquisition of Rabobank A.Ş. in July, renamed it Hepsi Bank and began piloting a shopping loan integrated with Hepsiburada. It plans to prioritize broader Turkish lending and deposits from 2027 and has reiterated an intention to capitalize the bank with about $300 million. The license connects commerce, payments and credit in a second market, making the strategic logic visible. It also puts fresh capital behind a model that has not yet demonstrated mature Turkish unit economics.
The strongest counterargument to a negative reading is that today's margin gap pays for tomorrow's platform. Deposit repricing may reduce Kazakhstan funding pressure, e-commerce services are already monetizing better, and early bank investment naturally precedes revenue. The skeptical version is equally concrete: payments yield can keep compressing, credit quality can worsen as duration rises, and a new country can consume management attention and capital before network effects appear.
The evidence that would decide between those views is specific. Fintech adjusted EBITDA needs to grow closer to its revenue once deposit cuts flow through, without another step-up in NPLs or cost of risk. Payments needs either firmer take-rate economics or proof that lower-yield volume creates value elsewhere. Hepsi Bank needs to disclose adoption, funding and credit performance after pilots become products. MarketBeat's earnings-call summary captures the mixed quarter; the platform bridge explains why mixed does not mean directionless. Kaspi has one engine expanding monetization, one expanding activity and one expanding balance-sheet exposure. The next margin move depends on which effect reaches profit first.